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| Prince Fielder |
From all the reading I've done, the Tigers are prohibitive favorites to win the A.L. Central this year. That perennial doormat Kansas City is picked by many to finish second indicates that the normal competition, the Twins, White Sox, and Indians, are in flux or rebuilding.
Certainly the Tigers seem to have it all, especially as far as pitching and offense. The Tigers have as good a four-man staff in all of baseball, with Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, and Rick Porcello. Porcello could be a key, as he has been up and down in his career. This spring, Porcello was 2-0 with a 1.59 E.R.A. As long as he keeps his pitches down, he's effective. Verlander was 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA, and Fister was 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA. Scherzer had the roughest spring, going 1-2 with a 5.76 ERA.
The bullpen is also stacked. Returning are Jose Valverde, who was perfect in save situations last year (at least in the regular season). Joaquin Benoit will be the eighth-inning man, and the Tigers have added Octavio Dotel to pitch the seventh. Once Dotel throws a pitch, it will be for a record 13th team. He's had a sub-2.00 ERA this spring. In long relief will be Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth.
The question will be with the fifth starter. Right now it will be rookie Drew Smyly, who will get a few starts with Toledo in Triple A before he will be needed later in April. Of course, the Tigers could find someone off the scrap heap, like they did with Brad Penny last year. If they can get a .500 record out of a fifth starter, it should be sufficient.
As far as the lineup goes, it's loaded, especially with the addition of Prince Fielder via free agency. The number 2 though 7 hitters are all dangerous: Brennan Boesch, Miguel Cabrera, Fielder, Delmon Young, Jhonny Peralta, and Alex Avila. The lead-off hitter is Austin Jackson, who is not a prototypical lead-off hitter, in that he strikes out way too much. The Tigers have worked on him this spring in taking more balls and shortening his swing, but if that doesn't work they really don't have any other option.
At least Jackson covers a lot of ground in centerfield. Defense figures to be the Tigers' weakness this year. With the arrival of Fielder, Cabrera has moved to third base. I asked my go-to guy on the Tigers, my dad, how he's been playing, and his answer was "adequate." Many think the experiment won't last, and Cabrera will end up DHing, but hopefully he can block enough balls and drive in enough runs to offset his errors. In the outfield, neither Young or Ryan Raburn are world beaters in left, or Boesch in right. Figure on a lot of high-scoring games this season.
The defense up the middle is better. Avila is a good signal caller, and this year he has a decent backup, as Gerald Laird returns to the team. Laird can't hit a lick, but he's great at throwing out base stealers, and will give Avila much needed days off. Peralta at short is fine, and Ramon Santiago at second (platooning with the multifaceted Raburn) is also reliable at second. As mentioned, Jackson patrols the vast centerfield well.
So, how far will the Tigers go this year? Anything but a division title will be a disappointment, and to exceed last year's effort will require a trip to the World Series. The New York Times picked them to face the Miami Marlins in the Series, which would be fun.
Here are my highly unresearched picks for this year:
AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Anaheim Angels
First Wild Card: Texas Rangers
Second Wild Card: Toronto Blue Jays
Play-in: Rangers over Blue Jays
Divisional Round: Tigers over Rangers, Yankees over Angels
Championship Round: Yankees over Tigers
NL East: Miami Marlins
NL Central: Cincinnati Reds
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
First Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies
Second Wild Card: San Francisco Giants
Play-in: Phillies over Giants
Divisional Round: Marlins over Phillies, Diamondbacks over Reds
Championship Round: Diamondbacks over Marlins
World Series: Yankees* over Diamondbacks in five.
*Note: this prediction is made due to the uncanny fact that for the last six times Kentucky won the NCAA basketball championship, going back to 1949, the Yankees have won the World Series. Also, by my picking the Yankees to win, they most certainly will not.
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